Aug 25, 2024 - Market will go down due to Geopolitical Tension and NVDA earning while Mercury goes direct?

S&P500 moved up significantly except on Thursday and closed at 5634.61 on Friday Aug 23, 2024. I expected the market to correct due to Mercury entering Kataga Rasi last week. It did take a pause in the mid-week, but rallied on Friday. There is no big movement on either side for Nasdaq.

Interestingly, Venus made a transit to its deblitated sign of Kanya Rasi on Saturday Aug 24, 2024. Mars will enter Midhuna Rasi by breaking the conjunction with Jupiter by the early morning hours of Monday Aug 26, 2024.

We will see the effects of Mars transit and Venus Transit by early this week. Jupiter and Moon making conjunction could try to save the market but eventually fail as this week progresses. I expect a high volatility during mid-week Tuesday through Thursday.

NVDA results are due on Wednesday after market close when Mercury goes direct at the same time. It is indicating a bearish pattern for Thursday price action for SPY, QQQ and SMH.

Based on the option premium for NVDA, it is high risk to trade NVDA options ahead of earnings. The other alternate approach is to go with ETFs SPY, QQQ or SMH. Or the other related tickers like SMCI.

My personal view based on my calculation is bearsih for NVDA and other semiconductors stocks. But always risk management is first priority than making money. The safe approach is 70% puts and 30% calls for SMH, QQQ or SPY for 3 weeks expiry is a good risk reward.

Geo-Political Update: Israel and Hezbollah trade fire in major flare-up

The war news over this weekend is a disturbing news to the world. Based on the time it has escalated, it is unlikley to end soon. Mars transit in Mirgasreeha and Arudra Naksahtra could make it worse before getting better. It could also trigger sudden selloff in the stockmarket.

US Dollar Index

US Dollar index trading at 52 weeks low on Sunday Aug 25, 2024. Based on Mars transit, I expect to greenback to enjoy a powerful bounce this week. Further to that, it can push down the gold prices temporaility. Still my long term view is very bullish for gold prices. Any significant pullbacks can be treated as a good buying opportunitity.

Weekly Trading Forecast

Date	Forecast	Confidence Level
Mon Aug 26, 2024	Mars enters Midhuna Rasi by early monring hours. Market may start going down. Better do not carry overnight position. Or play both sides equally for Tuesday market move at open.	80%
Tue Aug 27, 2024	High energy day with high volatility day. Market may keep doing down the whole day. But it market may have a big gap up or gap down. Thats why suggesting avoid overnight poitions for Monday night / Tuesday Morning.	80%
Wed Aug 28, 2024	Rangebound, better to take position just before the market close or after maket close in futures or SPY, QQQ extended hours trading (4:15 PM eastern). Looks bearish, but market may trade flat to kill the NVDA earning premimum is high possibility.	90%
Thu Aug 29, 2024	Brutal sell off during the day	90%
Fri Aug 30, 2024	Volatile day ahead of long weekend. Avoid trading preferably.	70%

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